September 30, 2004

state electoral trends: MO, IL, IN

Next up, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. Illinois is the odd one out, trending blue while the other two trend red. Interesting that Indiana and Illinois have a similar track through 1984, and then they split off in opposite directions. It's also interesting that both of these states have relatively smooth trends, without the back-and-forth zig-zagging that most states show, even those with an overall trend. Missouri has been oscillating around the national average, never going more than two election cycles in the same direction. If that pattern holds true this year, it could be good news for Kerry.